Billabong Pipe Masters

Surf Forecast | Billabong Pipe Masters

Dec 15, 2019

By Kevin Wallis / Surfline

Brief Overview

Slow through Monday morning but solid NW swell builds in the afternoon/evening. Building, strong ENE trades
Strong NW swell slowly eases Tuesday with strong E to ENE trades
Fading - but still overhead - surf Wednesday as breezy E trades temporarily ease a bit
Another strong NW swell builds on Thursday. Moderate E trades AM become breezy ENE/NE PM    


MONDAY 16th

Slow through the AM but building to 8-12’ occ. 15’ faces by the end of the day. Strong side/offshore wind.    

SWELL/SURF: Slow  through the morning but new, long period NW swell should build through the afternoon and evening hours, strongest at the end of the day. The best waves will likely be at Pipe with less frequent waves at Backdoor. 
WIND: Strong ENE trades.  


TUESDAY 17th

Easing 10-15’ faces AM, smaller PM. Strong side/offshore wind.    

SWELL/SURF: NW swell should slowly trend down through the day, with the largest surf in the morning. Mix of waves at Pipe and Backdoor. 
WIND: Strong E to ENE trades.  


WEDNESDAY 18th

Fading 6-8’+ faces. Moderate to breezy offshore wind but down from Mon-Tue.    

SWELL/SURF: NW swell should continue to fade through the day but still offers surf running from overhead up to a few feet overhead in the morning. 
WIND: Breezy E trades should ease a couple notches from Tuesday.  


THURSDAY 19th

Rebuilding 10-15’ faces. Moderate to breezy offshore wind AM, becoming strong sideshore by the end of the day.   

SWELL/SURF: New NW swell is expected to build through the morning and peak during the afternoon, looking similar in size to the Mon-Tue swell. 
WIND: Moderate E trades through the morning. Building and likely breezy ENE by the end of the day. 


FRIDAY 20th

Fading 8-10’+ faces AM, smaller PM. Strong sideshore wind. 

SWELL/SURF: NW swell is likely to fade through the day. 
WIND: Strong NE to ENE trades.  

Trades are expected to build on Monday as high pressure strengthens to the north of the islands.

Analysis

No signs of our new NW swell on Buoy 01 yet and it looks likely that we’ll see small/slow surf for most of the morning. We expect the swell to start building by midday and really come on over the afternoon and evening hours. We still expect a peak overnight and a gradual fade on Tuesday, although we’ll refine the exact details as we see this swell build on Buoy 01 in the next 12-24 hours. Monday afternoon is likely to favor Pipe on the building and longer period swell, with a mix of Pipe and Backdoor waves on Tuesday. Short-period ENE tradeswell will also be in the mix for some jumble, although that looks less problematic than the short-period N swell the past couple days. 

Trades are expected to build on Monday as high pressure strengthens to the north of the islands. We expect strong ENE trades on Monday to continue Tuesday, although shifting to at least a slightly better direction (E to ENE). Trades should slacken a notch or two on Wednesday into the first half of Thursday and remain from a favorable E direction. Rebuilding ENE trades are likely Thursday afternoon/evening and Friday, becoming strong once again. 

The next NW swell (305-330, peak energy around 315-325 degrees) for the end of the week is developing now and, thus far, the storm has actually out performed model guidance. We remain on track for another strong swell to build in through the morning on Thursday and likely peak in the afternoon before easing on Friday. Swell direction and period will favor Pipe Thursday morning, with Backdoor turning on more over the afternoon hours. As is noted above, it now looks like we could see a period of favorable to good wind Thursday morning, potentially the best of the week. It’s something we’ll continue to refine in the next day or two. 

Friday is expected to see a fading trend in surf as strong ENE trades build. 


Next Update: Monday, December 16th 


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