Billabong Pipe Masters

Surf Forecast | Billabong Pipe Masters

Dec 13, 2018

By Kevin Wallis

Brief Overview

Smaller surf Friday morning gradually rebuilds with mid size NW swell through the afternoon, before easing Saturday. Strong trades very gradually diminish the next couple days. A much stronger, and quite solid, NW to NNW swell is expected to build in and peak on Sunday before steadily weakening Monday. Wind should also be much lighter Sunday-Monday. Another very solid, and possibly stronger, NW to NNW swell is increasingly likely for Tue-Wed, although wind looks poor (side/onshore N to NE). The final day of the event window is likely to see decreasing, but still strong, NNW swell with improving wind.  


4-6’ occ. 7’ faces AM, rebuilding to 5-7’ occ. 8’ faces PM. Strong ENE trades. 

Swell/Surf: Down in the earlier morning from this afternoon. However, new, mid period NW swell builds through the day and the surf will fill back in starting later morning and especially in the afternoon.    
Wind: Breezy ENE trades, but should be down a notch from Thursday.   


Fading 5-7’ faces AM, smaller PM. Strong ENE trades. 

Swell/Surf: NW swell is likely to decrease through the day, with the largest waves in the morning.   
Wind: Breezy ENE trades, similar to Friday or down slightly.     


Rebuilding 15-20’ occ. 22’+ faces. Easing E trades. 

Swell/Surf: Very solid, new NW to NNW swell should build in and peak for the morning before gradually easing over the afternoon. It looks increasingly likely that Pipe will be maxing out with wash through sets, especially in the morning.     
Wind: Easing, moderate to breezy E trades, likely down a couple notches from Fri-Sat as well as an improved direction.   


Fading 10-15’ faces AM, smaller PM. Light E trades AM trend ENE PM. 

Swell/Surf: Fading NW to NNW swell through the day. Stay tuned.    
Wind: Light E trades for the morning, trending ENE for the afternoon.  


Rebuilding 18-20’ occ 25’ faces. Building N/NNE wind. 

Swell/Surf: Confidence is increasing that another very solid NW to NNW swell will build in through the day and likely peak in the afternoon. Stay tuned.    
Wind: Building and becoming breezy NNE wind.

Trades remain breezy from the ENE Friday and Saturday, but diminishing a touch from today.

Swell/Surf Outlook

We’ve been watching Buoy 01 closely for the last few hours for any signs of a new swell and we’re only seeing faint signals as of the 9PM reading. As such we expect to see mainly smaller leftovers from our current swell in the head high to slightly overhead range first thing on Friday. However, we do expect the mid size, new swell to build over the afternoon hours and the surf should pulse back up, running from head high to a couple feet overhead. The largest sets may push a few feet overhead later in the day and evening. Saturday should be down slightly in the morning, with a further decrease through the day. 

Trades remain breezy from the ENE Friday and Saturday, but diminishing a touch from today. We should also see our weather improve with less showers and more sunshine. 

A much larger swell is expected on Sunday, from an intense storm now quickly tracking toward the Aleutian Islands. This storm has lived up to and even exceeded model guidance thus far, so we’ll bump our previous numbers up. Pipeline looks increasingly likely to be maxed out on Sunday morning with Third Reef wash through sets, gradually subsiding in the afternoon. 

Monday should drop through the day, but the morning still looks strong with 10-15’ faces (starting to focus more on First Reef, although the occasional Second Reef set is still very possible early). Much lighter/better wind is expected Sunday and Monday as well. Sunday should be a ‘normal’ trade wind day with moderate E trades 10-15kts, while Monday should ease to gentle trades. 

Another very large NW to NNW swell is expected to build in quickly through the day on Tuesday, looks likely to peak in the afternoon and then ease on Wednesday. This swell currently looks larger than the Sunday swell and we also expect poor quality wind with increasing NNE flow Tuesday, trending NE on Wednesday. 

Thursday could offer dropping, but still strong, surf with improving wind. Stay tuned.  

Next Update: Friday evening, December 14th (local time)

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