Billabong Pipe Masters

Surf Forecast | Billabong Pipe Masters

Dec 14, 2017

BRIEF OVERVIEW

Older NNW swell leftovers and short period NE swell mix offers contestable surf on Saturday as wind lightens considerably from the past few days. A fun-size, new NW swell is on track to build Sunday, with a peak late Sunday through Monday and variable southerly swell. A final NNW swell looks progressively likely for Tue-Wed, although wind may trend onshore/N again.     


SATURDAY 16th

4-7’ faces. Lighter and more variable wind, but leftover AM bump.

SWELL/SURF: Much smaller NW/NNW swell with shorter period NE swell also mixing in.   
WIND: Light E/ENE wind in the morning/early afternoon, trending to light/variable late. Showers, possibly heavy at times.
TIDES: .3’ low 8:14am, .7 high at 1:46pm, 0’ low at 6:21PM


SUNDAY 17th

Building 3-5’ faces AM, 5-7’ faces late PM. Light S wind AM, seabreeze PM.

SWELL/SURF: New, mid size NW swell builds through the day. Slow first thing, strongest over the later afternoon and evening with surf from head high to a couple feet overhead.  
WIND: Light+ SSE/S wind in the morning, with a light sea breeze (N) developing in the afternoon. Showery weather, possibly heavy at times.
TIDES: .3’ low 8:52am, .7 high at 2:24pm, 0’ low at 6:51PM 


MONDAY 18th

Easing 5-7 occ. 8’ faces slowly easing. Light S wind AM, seabreeze PM.

SWELL/SURF: NW swell likely eases through the day.
WIND: Light S wind in the morning, trends to light to moderate SSW/SW in the afternoon.  
TIDES: .3’ low 9:28am, .6 high at 3:03pm, 0’ low at 7:23PM


TUESDAY 19th

Rebuilding 5-8 occ 10’ faces. Onshore N wind may return, stay tuned.

SWELL/SURF: Mid to shorter period NNW swell likely builds in through the morning and is strongest in the afternoon.
WIND: Low confidence on details, but potential for onshore N wind to rebuild through the day. However, latest guidance has it looking fairly light.   
TIDES: .2’ low 10:06am, .6 high at 3:43pm, .1’ low at 7:55PM


WEDNESDAY 20th

Holding 6-8 occ 10’ faces. Onshore N wind may build, stay tuned.

SWELL/SURF: Mid to short period NNW swell likely holds.
WIND: Onshore N wind likely increases from Tuesday.   
TIDES: .2’ low 10:46am, .6 high at 4:28pm, .1’ low at 8:30PM

New NW swell will slowly build on Sunday, but the latest model guidance has pushed the timing back slightly and also eased size a bit.

FORECAST OUTLOOK

Tricky, lower confidence forecast- especially for local wind- over the final few days of the event waiting period as successive lows impact the islands this weekend and again early/mid next week. The above details will likely need to be refined from day to day. 

The NW/NNW swell from the past few days will trend down further on Saturday, as short period NE swell mixes in. Look for the largest waves during the first half of the day, when surf will run from shoulder high to a foot or two overhead on sets and will still be mixed up (even with the much lighter wind). Light to moderate E to ENE trades look likely for the first half of the day, trending to light/variable flow late in the day/evening. Showery weather is expected, with heavy rain possible at times.

New NW swell will slowly build on Sunday, but the latest model guidance has pushed the timing back slightly and also eased size a bit. Expect a slow start on Sunday, with head high surf gradually filling in through the morning and especially over the afternoon. We’ll see a peak in swell late Sunday through the first half of Monday with surf running from head high to a couple feet overhead on sets.  

Southerly wind will develop for Sun-Mon but looks light on high res wind model guidance. At this point we’re looking for light SSE flow in the mornings Sundayand Monday, with a light sea breeze each afternoon. Stay tuned, we’ll likely refine details again tomorrow and Sunday.

A final, mid to shorter period swell from the NNW is expected for the last two days of the event window from a fetch that will develop close to the islands late this weekend/early next week. Confidence is increasing that this will be a larger swell than Mon-Tue, but the wind forecast is lower confidence and tricky. At this point we do expect to see the return of onshore N wind Tue-Wed, although Tuesday looks fairly light at this point, with Wednesday seeing an increase in strength.   


Next update: By Saturday evening, Dec 16th


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